Three days before the upcoming 3 November U.S. election, Joe Biden announces in an online press conference that he has Alzheimer’s Disease. The video, a deepfake, goes viral.
Fabricating convincing online content is cheaper and more accessible than ever. AI-powered tools like deepfake and GPT-3 can create compelling video and text portraying events that never happened. The technologies are often used for entertainment, advertising, and education. They can also generate disinformation. Microsoft is collaborating with global news and tech organizations to combat harmful disinformation, especially before the 3 November U.S. election. On 1 September, Microsoft announced two new systems to combat deepfakes.
Consumers will find it easier to ensure content’s authenticity. However, individuals seeking online content that matches their beliefs will more readily immerse themselves in sham realities. Technological solutions to that problem are in their infancy.
Today: Make Deepfakes In An Afternoon
I first wrote about deepfakes two years ago, before a hotly-contested U.S. midterm election. One of the most famous deepfake videos was a bogus Barak Obama, ironically delivering a PSA about fake news. Back then, creating a deepfake video required technical expertise, expensive equipment, and days of effort. Now, updated open-source tools and cheaper cloud computing horsepower allow non-experts to create convincing fake videos in an afternoon.
Global Collaboration Against Online Disinformation
Microsoft announced a new weapon this month to combat potential disinformation. Named “Video Authenticator,” it is a combination of a digital watermark tool and a corresponding watermark reader. Content creators can digitally watermark their work. Viewers of the content, like a photo or video supposedly from the New York Times, can read the watermark to verify that the work is authentic and unaltered.
Microsoft hopes that Video Authenticator will be used by the Trusted News Initiative, TNI. The TNI is a collaboration of major news and global tech organizations aiming to stop the spread of disinformation where it poses a risk of real-world harm. The 3 November U.S. Presidential election is a specific focus.
TNI Members include the BBC, Facebook, Google/YouTube, Twitter, Microsoft, AFP, Reuters, European Broadcasting Union (EBU), Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Hindu, CBC/Radio-Canada, First Draft, Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, The AP, and The Washington Post.
No game developers have joined TNI. That is notable because multiplayer online games have become essential marketing platforms. Epic Games’ Fortnite has 350 million registered users. A DJ Marshmallow concert in that virtual world attracted 10million attendees in 2019. Disney released the first “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” movie trailer in a Fortnite in-game theater. This corner of the Internet will be a significant source of news and information for Gen-Z, the “digital natives” born between 1997 and 2012.
An Endless Game Of Cat And Mouse
Despite the influence of global content and technology powerhouses, there will be an ongoing cat-and-mouse game between fake content creators and detectors. Microsoft said in their 1 September announcement, “We expect that methods for generating synthetic media will continue to grow in sophistication… Thus, in the longer term, we must seek stronger methods for maintaining and certifying the authenticity of news articles and other media.” In other words, Microsoft expects fakers to eventually find a way around Video Authenticator.
This forever war is an endless opportunity for impact and investment. However, there is an older problem with fake information that is much less tractable for technology.
Conspiracy Theories Shun Authenticity
Many people seek content bolstering their belief system, regardless of its origin. It is relatively easy to get people to believe something they already want to believe (my First Law of Marketing). Conspiracy theories are as old as human civilization. They range from Emperor Nero was secretly alive and planning to return to Rome to QAnon’s tenet that John F. Kennedy, Jr. faked his death and spearheads President Trump’s drive to unmask a pedophile ring run by Hilary Clinton and The Illuminati.
QAnon followers may number in the millions on Facebook. 11 candidates for the U.S. Congress openly support QAnon. Concerted efforts by prominent organizations, like TNI’s members, to curb online conspiracy theories have limited success. Part of a conspiracy theory’s formula is that “the establishment” (like TNI members) is hiding the truth. Followers feel they reveal the truth and make a meaningful contribution to society just by promoting their beliefs. It is an elegantly-designed cognitive virus for the human brain.
Today’s main technical counter to conspiracy theorists is blocking or deleting their accounts on social platforms. Determined communities easily evade those tactics. When Reddit eliminated the notorious subreddit, r/The_Donald, followers flocked to an independent site, TheDonald.win. Formed only in November 2019, it is about to crack the top 1,000 sites for United States traffic and engagement.
An Unbounded Opportunity
There will always be a strong demand for tools, like Video Authenticator, that detect fake or adulterated content. Most people highly value the assurance that they are consuming authentic content. Fakers will continuously train their algorithms to evade each new detection method, creating an ongoing cycle of opportunities to foil them.
The tech-accelerated spread of conspiracy theories is also unavoidable. Curbing it is a more formidable technical challenge partly because the tools required by communities like QAnon are trivial. Followers just need to gather and to communicate: their methods are limitless. The psychological hurdle is even higher: followers want to believe that they have discovered truth and purpose. As UCLA Psychiatrist, Joe Pierre, MD, recently wrote, “From that perspective, life down the rabbit hole might look pretty good.”
Coaxing conspiracy theory adherents out of their chosen virtual realities is another unbounded opportunity for impact and investment.
Title Image: captured from live stream 3-13-20 and modified by the author